The Great Power Question: 28% Odds of World War Three by 2050
Forecasters give meaningful probability to great power conflict over the coming decades. What scenarios are they pricing?
Markets tracking international conflicts, territorial control, and diplomatic developments
Forecasters give meaningful probability to great power conflict over the coming decades. What scenarios are they pricing?
Trump administration rhetoric has sparked NATO withdrawal markets. What would it take, and what would it mean?
As diplomatic options narrow and enrichment advances, markets price meaningful probability of Iran crossing the nuclear threshold.
Forecasters give meaningful probability to domestic political violence escalating to civil conflict. What scenarios are they pricing?
As global tensions persist, prediction markets offer a window into how forecasters assess the probability of nuclear weapons use—and what scenarios concern them most.
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