geopoliticscautious pessimism
The Great Power Question: 28% Odds of World War Three by 2050
Forecasters give meaningful probability to great power conflict over the coming decades. What scenarios are they pricing?
Theme
Geopolitics
Markets tracking international conflicts, territorial control, and diplomatic developments
Analysis Articles
geopoliticscautious optimism
The Atlantic Alliance Under Strain: 3.5% Odds of US NATO Withdrawal by March
Trump administration rhetoric has sparked NATO withdrawal markets. What would it take, and what would it mean?
geopoliticscautious pessimism
Tehran's Nuclear Ambitions: Forecasters Give 27% Odds of Iranian Bomb by 2030
As diplomatic options narrow and enrichment advances, markets price meaningful probability of Iran crossing the nuclear threshold.
geopoliticscautious pessimism
The Unthinkable: Markets Price 11% Odds of US Civil War by 2030
Forecasters give meaningful probability to domestic political violence escalating to civil conflict. What scenarios are they pricing?
geopoliticscautious pessimism
The Nuclear Shadow: What Markets Say About Atomic Risk in 2026
As global tensions persist, prediction markets offer a window into how forecasters assess the probability of nuclear weapons use—and what scenarios concern them most.
Markets Tracked
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ukraine-territory