Bitcoin's January Window: Where Markets See the Price Going
Prediction markets reveal asymmetric expectations for Bitcoin's January trajectory, with forecasters far more worried about $80k than excited about $150k.
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2028 Takes Shape: Vance and Newsom Lead Early Betting
With Trump's second term just beginning, prediction markets are already pricing the 2028 race—and the frontrunners may surprise you.
The AI Horizon: What Forecasters Across Platforms Agree On
Aggregating forecasts from Metaculus, Manifold, and Polymarket reveals surprising consensus on AI capabilities and risks—and instructive disagreements.
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View all →The AI Model Race: OpenAI's Uncertain Lead
As the AI capabilities race intensifies, prediction markets reveal surprising skepticism about who will hold the top spot on model leaderboards by month's end.
The Fed's Waiting Game: What Markets Expect on Rates and Inflation
With the January FOMC meeting days away, prediction markets show strong expectations that rates will hold steady—and may stay that way longer than many hoped.
Ukraine's Winter Lines: What Markets Say About the Territorial Fight
Prediction markets are tracking specific territorial questions in eastern Ukraine, with forecasters expressing skepticism about rapid Russian advances this winter.
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