economicsneutral
The Fed's Holding Pattern: Why Rate Cuts Keep Getting Postponed
Markets give under 2% odds of a Fed rate hike and only 10% odds of a cut-pause-cut pattern. What's keeping the Fed stuck?
Theme
Economics & Markets
Inflation, interest rates, GDP growth, and economic policy forecasts from prediction markets.
Analysis Articles
economicsneutral
The Egg Index: What America's Favorite Protein Tells Us About Inflation
Prediction markets are tracking egg prices as a real-time inflation indicator. What do $2.50 eggs tell us about the economy?
economicscautious optimism
Recession Watch: Markets Price 10% Odds of Negative GDP Growth in 2026
Despite persistent inflation concerns and policy uncertainty, forecasters see low recession probability. Here's what's driving their optimism.
economicsneutral
The Fed's Waiting Game: What Markets Expect on Rates and Inflation
With the January FOMC meeting days away, prediction markets show strong expectations that rates will hold steady—and may stay that way longer than many hoped.
Markets Tracked
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monetary-policyinflationgrowthrecessionemployment