Markets tracking artificial intelligence progress, including AGI timelines, company competition, regulatory developments, and capability milestones.
Markets give a coin-flip probability that there will be more software engineers in five years. What does this uncertainty tell us about AI's impact on knowledge work?
Aggregating forecasts from Metaculus, Manifold, and Polymarket reveals surprising consensus on AI capabilities and risks—and instructive disagreements.
Nvidia dominates AI chip markets, but forecasters see meaningful downside risk. What would it take for the stock to fall below $100?
As the AI capabilities race intensifies, prediction markets reveal surprising skepticism about who will hold the top spot on model leaderboards by month's end.
AI-generated music is climbing minor charts. Forecasters give 40% odds an AI song reaches the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027.
The AI giant has been signaling IPO intentions for over a year. What would a public OpenAI mean for the industry—and will it happen in 2026?
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