The Unthinkable: Markets Price 11% Odds of US Civil War by 2030

On prediction markets, the question of American civil war—once confined to academic speculation and dystopian fiction—trades at 11% probability by 2030. A more immediate market gives 7% odds by January 2027. These numbers are low but far from negligible, reflecting genuine uncertainty about American political stability.

What "Civil War" Means

The market's resolution criteria require interpretation. Few forecasters imagine a replay of 1861—uniformed armies fighting over territorial secession. More plausible scenarios involve:

Sustained political violence: Organized armed groups engaging in repeated attacks on government institutions or political opponents

State-federal conflicts: State governments using armed resistance to federal authority, potentially involving National Guard deployments

Separatist movements: Regions attempting to function autonomously with armed enforcement

Cascading unrest: Localized violence spreading and intensifying beyond law enforcement's ability to contain

The 11% captures a range of scenarios, from dramatic state secession to more diffuse but sustained armed conflict.

The 11% Case

What scenarios could produce civil war?

Contested elections: The 2024 election produced a clear winner, but future elections might not. A genuinely disputed outcome—particularly involving state officials refusing to certify results—could trigger armed confrontation.

Federal enforcement crises: If federal agencies attempt to enforce laws that state governments actively resist with armed opposition, escalation becomes possible.

Militia activation: Armed militia groups exist across the country. A precipitating event could mobilize them beyond isolated incidents.

Economic collapse: Severe economic disruption historically correlates with political instability. A financial crisis combined with existing polarization could be combustible.

Assassination or mass casualty events: Attacks on high-profile political figures could trigger retaliatory violence.

The 89% Case

Most forecasters expect American stability to hold:

Institutional resilience: The military, federal law enforcement, and most state governments have shown commitment to constitutional order.

Economic stakes: Civil war would be economically catastrophic. Businesses, financial institutions, and ordinary citizens have enormous incentives to prevent escalation.

Geographic integration: Unlike 1860, American political divisions don't follow clean geographic lines. Civil war would mean neighbor against neighbor, not region against region.

Historical baseline: Developed democracies rarely experience civil wars. The United States has navigated severe crises—the 1960s, the Depression, McCarthyism—without collapse.

Nuclear deterrent: Paradoxically, nuclear weapons may constrain domestic conflict. No faction could achieve military victory when the federal government controls nuclear arsenals.

The Trajectory

The 7% probability for civil war by January 2027 versus 11% by 2030 implies forecasters see risk accumulating over time rather than concentrated in any immediate crisis. Each passing year adds possibility—but no single year carries overwhelming probability.

This suggests forecasters view civil war as a "fat tail" risk: unlikely in any given period but possible over longer horizons, especially if political trends continue.

What the Numbers Mean

An 11% probability of civil war by 2030 should concern anyone who cares about American governance. It means:

• The situation is not stable enough for complacency
• Institutions cannot be taken for granted
• De-escalation should be a policy priority
• Contingency planning is prudent, not paranoid

At the same time, 11% means 89% probability that civil war doesn't occur. The base case remains American stability, however stressed.

Conclusion

Prediction markets force quantification of risks that political discourse often treats as unthinkable or inevitable. An 11% probability of civil war is neither. It's a meaningful risk that warrants attention without justifying panic—a probability that should inform preparation without determining resignation.

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Analysis informed by aggregated forecaster data from Manifold Markets as of January 20, 2026.