Trump's Second Term: What Markets Expect in the First 100 Days

Donald Trump's second inauguration marks the beginning of what promises to be an eventful administration. Prediction markets, which correctly called his 2024 victory when many polls showed a toss-up, are now pricing expectations for his policy agenda.

Immigration: The Defining Issue

The clearest market signal concerns immigration enforcement. Forecasters place just 1.75% odds on deportations falling below 250,000 in fiscal year 2025—below the 271,484 removals recorded in FY 2024 under Biden.

This pricing suggests markets expect a significant escalation in enforcement activity. The Trump administration has promised the largest deportation operation in American history, and forecasters appear to believe the machinery will be put in motion quickly.

The implications extend beyond immigration policy itself. Mass deportation operations would require substantial resource allocation, face legal challenges, and generate intense political controversy—all of which will shape the administration's bandwidth for other priorities.

The Midterm Shadow

Even as Trump begins his term, markets are already looking ahead to 2026. Republican House control after the midterms trades at just 22.5%—a strikingly bearish assessment given the party's current majority.

Historical patterns partially explain this skepticism: the president's party typically loses seats in midterm elections. But the magnitude of the implied Democratic advantage suggests markets expect either exceptional political circumstances or significant Republican vulnerability.

This creates an interesting dynamic: if markets are correct, Trump would spend most of his second term facing a Democratic House, dramatically limiting his legislative options.

What Isn't Priced

Markets reveal expectations but not certainties. Key questions remain difficult to price:

• How will courts respond to executive actions on immigration and other fronts?
• Will economic conditions support or undermine the administration's political standing?
• How will international developments—Ukraine, China, the Middle East—shape the political landscape?

These uncertainties mean current market prices should be read as probability-weighted expectations, not predictions of specific outcomes.

Reading the Signals

The overall picture from prediction markets is one of consequential change. Forecasters expect aggressive policy implementation, particularly on immigration, while remaining skeptical of Republican political fortunes beyond the current moment.

For observers tracking the administration, these market signals provide a useful baseline. When events diverge from market expectations—when deportation numbers come in surprisingly low or high, when midterm polling shifts dramatically—those divergences may signal important developments before they're widely recognized.

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Analysis informed by aggregated forecaster data from Polymarket as of January 20, 2026.