The Solar Surge: Forecasters Give 85% Odds Solar Dominates Renewables by 2031

Within the global energy transition, a more specific shift is underway: solar power's rise to dominance among renewable sources. Forecasters give 85% probability that solar will surpass both wind and hydropower to become the largest renewable energy source by 2031. This seemingly technical milestone has profound implications for energy policy, investment, and climate strategy.

The Renewable Landscape

Currently, hydropower remains the largest renewable electricity source globally, a position it has held for over a century. Wind power ranks second, with solar third but growing fastest. The 85% probability of solar dominance by 2031 reflects extraordinary growth rates that show no sign of slowing.

Why solar is winning:

Cost declines: Solar panel costs have fallen roughly 90% over the past decade. In many regions, solar is now the cheapest source of new electricity generation—cheaper than coal, gas, or even existing plants.

Scalability: Solar installations range from rooftop panels to gigawatt-scale farms. This flexibility allows deployment across diverse contexts.

Technology improvements: Panel efficiency continues to improve. Storage technology is catching up, addressing solar's intermittency problem.

Policy support: Tax credits, renewable mandates, and carbon pricing favor solar expansion in most major markets.

The Broader Transition

The higher-level market gives 95% probability that renewables reach 25-48% of global electricity by 2030. This represents continued growth but not a complete energy transformation:

• Fossil fuels will remain significant through 2030
• The transition is faster in electricity than in transportation or heating
• Emerging economies are adding both renewable and fossil capacity
• Grid infrastructure limits the pace of renewable integration

The 95% probability reflects confidence in continued growth within this range—neither stagnation nor revolutionary acceleration.

Investment Implications

Solar dominance reshapes energy investment:

Winners: Solar manufacturers, installers, and financiers. Battery and storage companies. Grid modernization firms.

Losers: Coal mining and coal-fired utilities. Potentially natural gas as solar+storage becomes cost-competitive for baseload power.

Complicated: Oil companies attempting green transitions. Nuclear power, which may be squeezed between solar's growth and fossil fuel incumbency.

The China Factor

China dominates solar panel manufacturing—roughly 80% of global production. Solar's rise increases strategic dependence on Chinese supply chains, creating tensions with energy security goals in the West.

This has sparked solar manufacturing investments in the U.S. and Europe, but building domestic capacity takes years. In the meantime, the world's green transition runs through Chinese factories.

Grid Challenges

Solar dominance creates grid management challenges:

• Intermittency: Solar produces nothing at night and varies with weather
• Duck curves: Midday solar abundance followed by evening demand peaks strains grid operators
• Storage requirements: Batteries or other storage are needed to shift solar generation to demand periods
• Transmission: Solar resources (deserts, open spaces) are often far from demand centers

These challenges are solvable but require massive infrastructure investment beyond the panels themselves.

What 85% Probability Means

At 85%, solar dominance of renewables by 2031 is the strong base case but not absolutely certain. Scenarios that could prevent it:

• Major manufacturing disruption (trade wars, supply chain crises)
• Unexpected technology problems (panel degradation, safety issues)
• Wind or nuclear acceleration that outpaces solar
• Grid integration failures that force solar curtailment

None of these appears likely, but forecasters leave 15% for the unexpected.

Conclusion

The solar surge represents one of the fastest technological transitions in energy history. At 85% probability of renewable dominance by 2031, forecasters see this shift as nearly inevitable. For investors, policymakers, and consumers, the implication is clear: the solar age is arriving, ready or not.

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Analysis informed by aggregated forecaster data from Metaculus as of January 20, 2026.