The Next Pandemic: Markets Price 30% Odds by 2030

COVID-19 demonstrated that pandemics aren't historical curiosities—they're ongoing risks in a globalized world. On prediction markets, forecasters give roughly 30% probability of another pandemic by 2030. A more severe scenario—a novel pathogen killing over 20 million people—trades at 15% by 2032.

These numbers demand attention from governments and individuals alike.

Defining Pandemic

The 30% figure requires definition. Markets typically define "pandemic" as:

• A novel pathogen (not seasonal flu variants)
• Global spread across multiple continents
• Significant public health response (not just elevated case counts)
• Often benchmarked against COVID-like disruption

By this standard, routine disease years don't qualify. The probability captures genuinely novel threats that could disrupt normal life.

The Risk Landscape

Several factors drive pandemic risk:

Zoonotic spillover: Most pandemic pathogens originate in animals. As human populations encroach on wildlife habitats, spillover opportunities increase.

Lab biosecurity: Research on dangerous pathogens creates accident risk. Whether COVID originated from a lab remains debated (market probability around 27%), but the possibility highlights this concern.

Antimicrobial resistance: Bacteria evolving resistance to antibiotics could create pandemic-scale health crises, though these typically develop gradually rather than explosively.

Climate change: Changing ecosystems affect disease vectors. Tropical diseases may expand to new regions.

Bioterrorism: Deliberate release of engineered pathogens represents a tail risk that could have catastrophic consequences.

The 15% Catastrophic Scenario

A pandemic killing 20 million or more—roughly twice COVID's confirmed death toll—would represent catastrophic global health failure. At 15% probability by 2032, this isn't the base case but isn't negligible either.

This scenario might involve:

• A pathogen more lethal than COVID-19
• Emergence in regions with weak health infrastructure
• Failure of international response coordination
• Deliberate release or lab accident with an engineered pathogen

What We Learned (and Didn't)

COVID-19 prompted massive investment in pandemic preparedness—but also revealed how quickly that attention fades:

Positive developments:

• mRNA vaccine technology proved rapid and adaptable
• International genomic surveillance improved
• Public awareness of pandemic risk increased

Concerning trends:

• Preparedness funding has already declined from pandemic peaks
• International cooperation remains fractured
• Misinformation spread faster than the virus in some contexts
• Supply chain vulnerabilities persist

The Mask Mandate Signal

A specific market asks about mask mandates returning to U.S. public transit due to pandemic—30% probability by 2030. This tracks closely with the general pandemic probability, suggesting forecasters see any new pandemic as likely to trigger similar policy responses.

Investment and Policy Implications

A 30% pandemic probability by 2030 justifies significant investment in:

• Surveillance systems for early detection
• Vaccine platform technologies for rapid response
• Stockpiles of medical equipment and PPE
• Health system surge capacity
• International coordination mechanisms

For individuals, it suggests:

• Basic preparedness (supplies, remote work capability) remains prudent
• Health insurance and emergency savings matter
• Location decisions should consider healthcare access

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic wasn't a once-in-a-century event—it was a reminder that pandemic risk is ongoing. At 30% probability of another pandemic by 2030, forecasters see this decade as carrying meaningful risk. The exact timing is unknowable, but the risk is quantifiable—and it's higher than most people's daily behavior suggests they believe.

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Analysis informed by aggregated forecaster data from Manifold Markets as of January 20, 2026.