2028 Takes Shape: Vance and Newsom Lead Early Betting

President Trump was inaugurated just today, yet prediction markets have already moved on to his successor. The 2028 presidential race is taking shape in the betting odds, revealing distinct frontrunners on each side—and a Republican field more consolidated than many expected.

The Republican Race: Vance's Early Dominance

Vice President JD Vance commands a striking lead in the 2028 Republican nomination market, trading at 51% on PredictIt. This represents an unusually dominant position this early in a cycle.

For comparison, the next closest competitor is Secretary of State Marco Rubio at just 15%. Former President Trump and Governor Ron DeSantis each trade at 4%—nominal prices reflecting the improbability of either running.

The field's other notables cluster in the low single digits: Ted Cruz (3%), Donald Trump Jr. (3%), Brian Kemp (3%), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (3%). Glenn Youngkin, once considered a rising star, sits at just 2%.

The market signal is clear: barring dramatic developments, Vance is the presumptive heir apparent. His Ohio roots, populist credentials, and direct access to the Trump coalition make him formidable.

The Democratic Race: A Fragmented Field

The Democratic side presents a starkly different picture. Governor Gavin Newsom leads at 32%—a plurality but not dominance. The field behind him is fragmented across multiple plausible candidates.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits at 11%, reflecting her national profile and ability to energize the party's progressive wing. Behind her, a cluster of governors and senators each trade between 3-7%:

• Kamala Harris (7%): The Vice President could seek a rematch
• Josh Shapiro (7%): Pennsylvania's popular governor
• Andy Beshear (7%): Kentucky's two-time winner in red territory
• Pete Buttigieg (5%): Transportation Secretary with presidential experience
• JB Pritzker (5%): Illinois governor with personal wealth
• Gretchen Whitmer (4%): Michigan governor with crossover appeal

This distribution suggests no consensus has formed on the Democratic side. The party is working through questions about direction, message, and electability that the 2024 defeat sharpened.

The Midterm Factor

Looming over 2028 speculation is the 2026 midterm. Polymarket gives Republicans just 22.5% odds of controlling the House after November—an unusually bearish assessment given their current majority.

PredictIt's granular House market reinforces this skepticism. The modal outcome (27% probability) is Republicans winning 192 or fewer seats—a Democratic landslide that would give the opposition party substantial power and momentum.

If this scenario materializes, it would reshape 2028 calculations. A humbling midterm could damage Vance's standing while elevating Democratic figures who deliver wins.

Reading the Odds

These early prices shouldn't be mistaken for predictions. Two and a half years is an eternity in politics. Vance could stumble in office; Newsom could face scandals or primary challenges; entirely new figures could emerge.

What markets capture is current expectation weighted by probability. Today, forecasters see:

• Vance as the strong GOP favorite, benefiting from incumbency and Trump's blessing
• Newsom as the Democratic frontrunner, but without locking down the field
• A midterm environment that could scramble everything

The next two years will reveal whether these early assessments prove prescient or dramatically wrong. For now, the betting markets have picked their horses—even as the race hasn't officially begun.

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Analysis informed by aggregated forecaster data from PredictIt and Polymarket as of January 20, 2026.