About Signal News
Deep analysis of world events, informed by aggregated forecaster sentiment
Our Mission
Signal News delivers substantive analysis of global events—from geopolitics to economics to technology—informed by a unique data source: prediction markets. These markets aggregate the forecasts of thousands of participants who put real money behind their beliefs, creating probability-weighted expectations that complement traditional reporting.
How We Work
We analyze data from leading prediction markets including Polymarket, Metaculus, PredictIt, and Manifold Markets. These platforms host thousands of active markets on topics ranging from elections and economic indicators to scientific breakthroughs and international conflicts.
Our articles synthesize insights from clusters of thematically related markets to tell coherent narratives about world events. The market data powers the analysis but stays in the background—we write journalism about actual events, informed by quantified forecaster sentiment.
Why Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets have demonstrated accuracy across diverse domains. They correctly called the 2024 US presidential election when many polls showed a toss-up. They provide real-time probability updates as events unfold. And because participants have financial stakes, markets incentivize careful analysis over partisan cheerleading.
Markets aren't oracles—they express probability-weighted expectations, not certainties. But they offer a valuable signal: when thousands of forecasters converge on a probability, that convergence carries informational weight.
Our Data Sources
Polymarket
The largest crypto-based prediction market, offering deep liquidity on political, economic, and current events markets.
Metaculus
A forecasting platform focused on scientific and technological questions, with a strong track record on long-term predictions.
PredictIt
A US-regulated political prediction market operated by Victoria University of Wellington, specializing in American elections.
Manifold Markets
A play-money prediction market with broad topic coverage and an active community of forecasters.
Editorial Approach
Our articles aim for the depth of Foreign Affairs or The Economist, with the quantitative rigor that prediction market data enables. We focus on:
- Substantive analysis rather than market-watching
- Probability-weighted thinking over confident predictions
- Cross-platform synthesis to capture the full forecaster landscape
- Transparency about what markets can and cannot tell us
Disclaimers
Signal News provides analysis for informational purposes only. Our content:
- Does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice
- Should not be used as the sole basis for any financial decisions
- Reflects aggregated forecaster sentiment, not guaranteed outcomes
- May not capture all relevant information about covered topics
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.